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Street locked · 22192 | $650,000 Flip Analysis — FlipScout
Property photo 1 Property photo 2 Property photo 3 Property photo 4 Property photo 5
Ask
$650,000
$276/sqft
Bid $
$513,166
Max bid / MAO
Room
~$136,834 over max bid · 21% of ask
vs max bid
Verdict
WALK
Pass at list
Rehab
$96,220
$41/sqft
ARV
$534,959

Clearance (C) — bid physics. C = Bid $ ÷ Ask. We don't mint fake CLEARS. CLEARS · BID TARGET · WALK

Free: tape numbers + 3 Bid Checks/mo. Pro $15/mo: unlimited Bid Checks · streets + Deal Architecture.

Deal Architecture · Pro

Bid $ $513,166 · Ask $650,000

Walk-away max bid is free above — same math as the Bid/Pass Tape. Live waterfall, health, controls, and rehab bands unlock with Pro. We do not show a hollow OUR EDGE with empty dashes.

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Flip math

Value-add ARV

ARV = adjusted list + (rehab × 1.5) · zip avm

Implied ARV $/sqft
Subject sqft2356 sqft
ARV$534,959
List− $650,000
Rehab− $96,220
Gross profit$-211,261

Contextual market baseline

Sold comps for neighborhood context — not the ARV formula · 3 sales · last 6 mo · zip 22192

Street locked · 22192 · TOWNHOMES $515,000 · 2346 sqft
Street locked · 22192 · TOWNHOMES $548,000 · 2192 sqft
Street locked · 22192 · TOWNHOMES $495,000 · 2155 sqft

Net pro forma

Includes closing costs & 4.0-month carry

Buy closing (2%)$13,000
Holding carry$27,361
All-in capital$786,581
Sell costs (6%)− $32,098
Net proceeds$502,862
Net profit $-47,928
Photo triage & rehab band

Condition triage

Library estimate

No contractor assessment on file for this listing.

ML baseline rehab: $96,220

Baseline notes

Investor scope checklist

  • ▸Kitchen cabinets/counters are primary value-add
  • ▸Flooring and paint drive resale perception
  • ▸Exterior curb appeal strongly impacts ARV
  • ▸Mechanicals assumed functional; verify on inspection

Renovation budget

Total: $96,220
Kitchen — Full Replacement $48,000
Bathroom — Full Renovation $18,000
Interior Paint (2,356 sqft × $3.00) $7,068
Flooring — Hardwood Refinish (2,356 sqft × $4.50) $10,602
Contingency (15%) $12,550

Rehab from historical Condition Tier $/sqft band × subject sqft — not vision-invented GC quotes. Verify with a licensed contractor before closing.

Neighborhood & Apex

Trajectory: Stable

No enrichment data.

Apex breakdown

Threshold 85+ = Apex Hot

profit margin
15/100
35% weight
hidden repair risk
100/100
25% weight
neighborhood trajectory
60/100
25% weight
condition
50/100
15% weight
Beds
3
Baths
3.0
Sqft
2356
Zip
22192

Assigns Condition Tier 1–4 from listing photos (gut / heavy / cosmetic / turnkey). Rehab $ comes from historical tier bands — not photo guessing. Usually ~30–90s.

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Same zip or nearby price band — Bid/Pass Tape rows

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