Absorption / MOS
Market frozen / inventory backpressure
MOS 43.8 mo
sold_6m 33 · actives 241 · High confidence
33 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
San Marcos, TX Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (78666)
FlipScout underwriting tape for San Marcos, TX (78666) — 241 actives, 0 Verified / 31 Modeled. Absorption: Market frozen / inventory backpressure; sold_6m=33 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.
Signal Narrative
San Marcos, TX (78666) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=33 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 241 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 43.8 mo (Market frozen / inventory backpressure; velocity ≈ 5.5 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 31 Modeled / 210 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +7.5% (n=31) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-30T06:43:39Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-30T06:43:39Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 241 ÷ (33 ÷ 6) = 241 ÷ 5.5
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 33 / 6 = 5.5 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.
Modeled actives: 31 · Median Modeled ask margin: +7.5% (directional only — not Verified comps).
This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method
Total Listings
241
Verified 0 · Modeled 31 · Unscored 210
Median Modeled margin
7.5%
Directional Modeled ask tape · n=31 · not Verified comps
Hard Reject at ask
Pending
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate
Need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV (have 0 Verified). We never invent Hard Reject from Modeled comps.
Rehab bands
Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
N/A
Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)
Trajectory
Stable
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
0.0% Verified
Modeled 12.9% · Unscored 87.1%
List → ARV discount
—
Deep share — · n=—
Hold bleed pressure
—
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
40 shown of 241 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $358,620 · mix V0/M40/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 78666. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$774,9007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$654,9007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$600,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$550,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$524,9997.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$485,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$484,8697.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$440,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$439,9907.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$426,9907.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$422,4107.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$372,6547.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$367,2507.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$349,9907.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$348,9907.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$335,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$329,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$323,4207.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$319,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$316,9907.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$313,5507.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$299,9987.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$299,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$284,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$280,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$277,9937.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$252,9997.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$251,9997.5% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$739,0007.3% M53ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$459,9906.5% M52ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$742,5001.4% M48ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$657,620——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$564,671——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$739,990——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$429,679——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$220,999——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$130,000——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$349,900——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$299,990——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
Open brief
$312,990——ModeledSan Marcos, TX · Modeled listing
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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.
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