Absorption / MOS
Elevated supply / slow absorption
MOS 6.5 mo
sold_6m 174 · actives 188 · High confidence
174 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
Buffalo, NY Hard Reject Underwriting Tape (14221)
FlipScout underwriting tape for Buffalo, NY (14221) — 188 actives, 6 Verified / 23 Modeled. Absorption: Elevated supply / slow absorption; sold_6m=174 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject rate 100.0% on Verified w/ ARV (QDA defaults — Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy on Bid Tape; Bid $ free).
Signal Narrative
Buffalo, NY (14221) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=174 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 188 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 6.5 mo (Elevated supply / slow absorption; velocity ≈ 29.0 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 6 Verified / 23 Modeled / 159 Unscored. Hard Reject at ask 100.0% on Verified-with-ARV (QDA defaults — rates only on free hubs). Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-30T06:24:32Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Backed by FlipScout solds + Verified ask tape · 2026-07-30T06:24:32Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 188 ÷ (174 ÷ 6) = 188 ÷ 29.0
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 174 / 6 = 29.0 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
gross_margin% = (ARV − list − rehab) / list · Verified actives @ ask
Universe: Verified ask tape · n=6 · not sold-comp ROI
HardReject% = list_above_mao / Verified_w_ARV = 6 / 6
QDA defaults: 12% required net · 4-mo carry · 2% slip · Bid $ free on tape
Total Listings
188
Verified 6 · Modeled 23 · Unscored 159
Median Verified margin
-56.38%
p25 -59.19% · p75 -33.67% · n=6
Hard Reject at ask
100.0%
Strong 0.0% · Pass 0.0%
Share where list exceeds FlipScout MAO at QDA defaults (12% required net / 4-mo carry / 2% slip). Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy at ask on Bid Tape; Bid $ free on sheets.
Rehab bands
T2$54.54/sqft · n=6
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
49.5
Hot 0.0% · n=6
Trajectory
Stable
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
3.2% Verified
Modeled 12.2% · Unscored 84.6%
List → ARV discount
-61.48%
Deep share 0.0% · n=6
Hold bleed pressure
$150–$200/day
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Condo/SFR split withheld — need ≥8 Verified per class.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
40 shown of 188 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $394,450 · mix V6/M34/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 14221. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$304,9009.8% V54VerifiedBuffalo, NY · Verified listing
Open brief
$369,0006.6% V52VerifiedBuffalo, NY · Verified listing
Open brief
$569,9002.9% V50VerifiedBuffalo, NY · Verified listing
Open brief
$573,5002.9% V50VerifiedBuffalo, NY · Verified listing
Open brief
$642,9002.5% V49VerifiedBuffalo, NY · Verified listing
Open brief
$724,5001.3% V48VerifiedBuffalo, NY · Verified listing
Open brief
$749,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$659,9907.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$659,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$624,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$494,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$449,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$449,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$439,9997.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,0007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$389,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$379,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$375,0007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$375,0007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$359,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$345,0007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$330,0007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$209,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$200,0007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$180,0007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$139,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$619,9007.5% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$610,9007.4% M53ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$599,900——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$389,900——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$249,900——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$550,000——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$324,900——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$499,900——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$300,000——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$359,900——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$275,000——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,900——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
Open brief
$350,000——ModeledBuffalo, NY · Modeled listing
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PriceMarginApexAddress
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US Goldmine Atlas
Sold-density underwriting terminals nationwide. Browse all Goldmines · Absorption regimes · Fix & flip underwriting · Methodology · Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Markets hub · New York Goldmines