Absorption / MOS
Seller-leaning absorption
MOS 2.6 mo
sold_6m 47 · actives 20 · High confidence
47 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
Santa Maria, CA Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (93458)
FlipScout underwriting tape for Santa Maria, CA (93458) — 20 actives, 0 Verified / 20 Modeled. Absorption: Seller-leaning absorption; sold_6m=47 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.
Signal Narrative
Santa Maria, CA (93458) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=47 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 20 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 2.6 mo (Seller-leaning absorption; velocity ≈ 7.8 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 20 Modeled / 0 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +2.2% (n=20) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-30T06:41:47Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-30T06:41:47Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 20 ÷ (47 ÷ 6) = 20 ÷ 7.8
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 47 / 6 = 7.8 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.
Modeled actives: 20 · Median Modeled ask margin: +2.2% (directional only — not Verified comps).
This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method
Total Listings
20
Verified 0 · Modeled 20
Median Modeled margin
2.2%
Directional Modeled ask tape · n=20 · not Verified comps
Hard Reject at ask
Pending
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate
Need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV (have 0 Verified). We never invent Hard Reject from Modeled comps.
Rehab bands
Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
N/A
Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)
Trajectory
Stable
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
0.0% Verified
Modeled 100.0% · Unscored 0.0%
List → ARV discount
—
Deep share — · n=—
Hold bleed pressure
—
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
20 shown of 20 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $639,950 · mix V0/M20/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 93458. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$620,0007.5% M53ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$575,0007.5% M53ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$559,0007.5% M53ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$529,9007.5% M53ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$238,9997.5% M53ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$769,0007.4% M53ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$798,9997.3% M53ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$785,0002.2% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$640,0002.2% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$764,9002.2% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$599,0002.1% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$610,0002.1% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$585,0001.9% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$645,0001.7% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$645,0001.7% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$705,0001.7% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$639,9001.7% M49ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$659,9001.5% M48ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$624,9001.5% M48ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$699,9991.1% M48ModeledSanta Maria, CA · Modeled listing
Open briefVerified Invest Deals
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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.
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