Absorption / MOS
Seller-leaning absorption
MOS 1.4 mo
sold_6m 189 · actives 43 · High confidence
189 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
Napa, CA Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (94558)
FlipScout underwriting tape for Napa, CA (94558) — 43 actives, 0 Verified / 8 Modeled. Absorption: Seller-leaning absorption; sold_6m=189 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.
Signal Narrative
Napa, CA (94558) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=189 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 43 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 1.4 mo (Seller-leaning absorption; velocity ≈ 31.5 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 8 Modeled / 35 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +7.5% (n=8) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-29T06:05:11Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-29T06:05:11Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 43 ÷ (189 ÷ 6) = 43 ÷ 31.5
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 189 / 6 = 31.5 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.
Modeled actives: 8 · Median Modeled ask margin: +7.5% (directional only — not Verified comps).
This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method
Total Listings
43
Verified 0 · Modeled 8 · Unscored 35
Median Modeled margin
7.5%
Directional Modeled ask tape · n=8 · not Verified comps
Hard Reject at ask
Pending
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate
Need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV (have 0 Verified). We never invent Hard Reject from Modeled comps.
Rehab bands
Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
N/A
Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)
Trajectory
Stable
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
0.0% Verified
Modeled 18.6% · Unscored 81.4%
List → ARV discount
—
Deep share — · n=—
Hold bleed pressure
—
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
40 shown of 43 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $635,000 · mix V0/M40/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 94558. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$529,0007.5% M53ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$525,0007.5% M53ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$508,0007.5% M53ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$499,0007.5% M53ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$499,0007.5% M53ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$645,0001.7% M49ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$776,8911.3% M48ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$755,0000.4% M48ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$699,990——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$785,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$594,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$439,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$679,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$519,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$624,950——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$779,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$650,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$789,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$545,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$795,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$697,600——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$749,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$625,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$579,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$575,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$549,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$549,998——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$795,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$685,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$750,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$699,990——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$478,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$680,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$665,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$719,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$449,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$585,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$779,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$598,000——ModeledNapa, CA · Modeled listing
Open briefVerified Invest Deals
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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.
US Goldmine Atlas
Sold-density underwriting terminals nationwide. Browse all Goldmines · Absorption regimes · Fix & flip underwriting · Methodology · Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Markets hub · California Goldmines