Absorption / MOS
Seller-leaning absorption
MOS 1.0 mo
sold_6m 168 · actives 29 · High confidence
168 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
San Francisco, CA Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (94109)
FlipScout underwriting tape for San Francisco, CA (94109) — 29 actives, 0 Verified / 14 Modeled. Absorption: Seller-leaning absorption; sold_6m=168 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.
Signal Narrative
San Francisco, CA (94109) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=168 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 29 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 1.0 mo (Seller-leaning absorption; velocity ≈ 28.0 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 14 Modeled / 15 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +1.7% (n=14) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-30T06:30:43Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-30T06:30:43Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 29 ÷ (168 ÷ 6) = 29 ÷ 28.0
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 168 / 6 = 28.0 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.
Modeled actives: 14 · Median Modeled ask margin: +1.7% (directional only — not Verified comps).
This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method
Total Listings
29
Verified 0 · Modeled 14 · Unscored 15
Median Modeled margin
1.7%
Directional Modeled ask tape · n=14 · not Verified comps
Hard Reject at ask
Pending
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate
Need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV (have 0 Verified). We never invent Hard Reject from Modeled comps.
Rehab bands
Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
N/A
Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)
Trajectory
Stable
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
0.0% Verified
Modeled 48.3% · Unscored 51.7%
List → ARV discount
—
Deep share — · n=—
Hold bleed pressure
—
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
29 shown of 29 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $639,000 · mix V0/M29/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 94109. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$569,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$549,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$498,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$398,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$85,0007.5% M53ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$599,0007.3% M53ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$640,0001.8% M49ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$667,0001.5% M49ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$675,0001.4% M48ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$690,0001.3% M48ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$745,4000.8% M48ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$748,0000.8% M48ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$749,0000.8% M48ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$795,0000.5% M48ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$688,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$402,999——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$599,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$488,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$639,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$779,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$668,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$383,968——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$89,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$699,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$655,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$629,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$638,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$599,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$699,000——ModeledSan Francisco, CA · Modeled listing
Open briefVerified Invest Deals
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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.
US Goldmine Atlas
Sold-density underwriting terminals nationwide. Browse all Goldmines · Absorption regimes · Fix & flip underwriting · Methodology · Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Markets hub · California Goldmines