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Watsonville, CA Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (95076)

FlipScout underwriting tape for Watsonville, CA (95076) — 41 actives, 0 Verified / 17 Modeled. Absorption: Seller-leaning absorption; sold_6m=141 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.

Signal Narrative

Watsonville, CA (95076) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=141 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 41 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 1.7 mo (Seller-leaning absorption; velocity ≈ 23.5 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 17 Modeled / 24 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +1.8% (n=17) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.

Underwriting terminal

Neighborhood tape

As of 2026-07-29T06:25:13Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro

Quant Art

Neighborhood math

Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-29T06:25:13Z · daily snapshot

Absorption dial
1.7 MOS mo

MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 41 ÷ (141 ÷ 6) = 41 ÷ 23.5

Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12

Sold liquidity stripe
sold_6m 141 actives 41

monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 141 / 6 = 23.5 closings/mo

Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape

Ask-tape status

Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.

Modeled actives: 17 · Median Modeled ask margin: +1.8% (directional only — not Verified comps).

This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method

Absorption / MOS

Seller-leaning absorption

MOS 1.7 mo

sold_6m 141 · actives 41 · High confidence

141 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.

Total Listings

41

Verified 0 · Modeled 17 · Unscored 24

Median Modeled margin

1.8%

Directional Modeled ask tape · n=17 · not Verified comps

Rehab bands

Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.

Verified · condition tier $/sqft

Median Apex

N/A

Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)

Trajectory

Stable

Neighborhood enrichment signal

Honesty mix

0.0% Verified

Modeled 41.5% · Unscored 58.5%

List → ARV discount

—

Deep share — · n=—

Hold bleed pressure

—

Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro

Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes

Active inventory

40 shown of 41 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $632,000 · mix V0/M40/U0

Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 95076. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.

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Open brief$295,000——Modeled

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Open brief$639,000——Modeled

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Open brief$679,000——Modeled

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Open brief$799,000——Modeled

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Open brief$800,000——Modeled

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Open brief$295,000——Modeled

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Open brief$635,000——Modeled

Watsonville, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$500,000——Modeled

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Open brief$649,000——Modeled

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Open brief$620,000——Modeled

Watsonville, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief

Verified Invest Deals

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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.

US Goldmine Atlas

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