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Ashburn, VA Hard Reject Underwriting Tape (20147)

FlipScout underwriting tape for Ashburn, VA (20147) — 181 actives, 10 Verified / 24 Modeled. Absorption: Balanced absorption; sold_6m=193 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject rate 100.0% on Verified w/ ARV (QDA defaults — Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy on Bid Tape; Bid $ free).

Signal Narrative

Ashburn, VA (20147) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=193 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 181 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 5.6 mo (Balanced absorption; velocity ≈ 32.2 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 10 Verified / 24 Modeled / 147 Unscored. Hard Reject at ask 100.0% on Verified-with-ARV (QDA defaults — rates only on free hubs). Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.

Underwriting terminal

Neighborhood tape

As of 2026-07-29T06:01:08Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro

Quant Art

Neighborhood math

Backed by FlipScout solds + Verified ask tape · 2026-07-29T06:01:08Z · daily snapshot

Absorption dial
5.6 MOS mo

MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 181 ÷ (193 ÷ 6) = 181 ÷ 32.2

Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12

Sold liquidity stripe
sold_6m 193 actives 181

monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 193 / 6 = 32.2 closings/mo

Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape

Margin quantile ladder
0% p25 -41.9%med -31.1%p75 -19.9%

gross_margin% = (ARV − list − rehab) / list · Verified actives @ ask

Universe: Verified ask tape · n=10 · not sold-comp ROI

Hard Reject ring
100% at ask

HardReject% = list_above_mao / Verified_w_ARV = 10 / 10

QDA defaults: 12% required net · 4-mo carry · 2% slip · Bid $ free on tape

Absorption / MOS

Balanced absorption

MOS 5.6 mo

sold_6m 193 · actives 181 · High confidence

193 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.

Total Listings

181

Verified 10 · Modeled 24 · Unscored 147

Median Verified margin

-31.05%

p25 -41.87% · p75 -19.94% · n=10

Hard Reject at ask

100.0%

Strong 0.0% · Pass 0.0%

Share where list exceeds FlipScout MAO at QDA defaults (12% required net / 4-mo carry / 2% slip). Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy at ask on Bid Tape; Bid $ free on sheets.

Rehab bands

T2$42.33/sqft · n=8

Verified · condition tier $/sqft

Median Apex

48.9

Hot 0.0% · n=8

Trajectory

Stable

Neighborhood enrichment signal

Honesty mix

5.5% Verified

Modeled 13.3% · Unscored 81.2%

List → ARV discount

-19.82%

Deep share 0.0% · n=10

Hold bleed pressure

$150–$200/day

Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro

Condo/SFR split withheld — need ≥8 Verified per class.

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes

Active inventory

40 shown of 181 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $599,845 · mix V10/M30/U0

Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 20147. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.

Browse all in Houses →
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$519,9003.5% V50Verified

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$580,0003.5% V50Verified

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$572,9902.8% V50Verified

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$699,9902.0% V49Verified

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$689,0001.9% V49Verified

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$689,0001.9% V49Verified

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$727,1941.7% V49Verified

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$749,9991.2% V48Verified

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$689,990-32.5% V—VerifiedNeg margin

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$595,000-56.9% V—VerifiedNeg margin

Ashburn, VA · Verified listing

Open brief$784,9007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$694,9997.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$679,9907.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$669,9997.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$659,9007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$609,9907.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$600,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$581,3007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$579,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$550,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$549,9007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$499,9007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$449,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$438,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$425,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$420,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$399,9997.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$315,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$304,9907.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$775,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$575,0007.5% M53Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$604,9002.2% M49Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$599,9902.1% M49Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$749,9901.9% M49Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$639,000——Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$576,000——Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$645,000——Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$694,000——Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$394,900——Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$599,700——Modeled

Ashburn, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief

Verified Invest Deals

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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — 100% of Verified actives with ARV screen Hard Reject at ask under FlipScout QDA defaults.

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