Absorption / MOS
Balanced absorption
MOS 5.0 mo
sold_6m 187 · actives 157 · High confidence
187 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
Stafford, VA Hard Reject Underwriting Tape (22554)
FlipScout underwriting tape for Stafford, VA (22554) — 157 actives, 9 Verified / 14 Modeled. Absorption: Balanced absorption; sold_6m=187 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject rate 100.0% on Verified w/ ARV (QDA defaults — Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy on Bid Tape; Bid $ free).
Signal Narrative
Stafford, VA (22554) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=187 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 157 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 5.0 mo (Balanced absorption; velocity ≈ 31.2 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 9 Verified / 14 Modeled / 134 Unscored. Hard Reject at ask 100.0% on Verified-with-ARV (QDA defaults — rates only on free hubs). Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-29T06:08:35Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Backed by FlipScout solds + Verified ask tape · 2026-07-29T06:08:35Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 157 ÷ (187 ÷ 6) = 157 ÷ 31.2
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 187 / 6 = 31.2 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
gross_margin% = (ARV − list − rehab) / list · Verified actives @ ask
Universe: Verified ask tape · n=9 · not sold-comp ROI
HardReject% = list_above_mao / Verified_w_ARV = 9 / 9
QDA defaults: 12% required net · 4-mo carry · 2% slip · Bid $ free on tape
Total Listings
157
Verified 9 · Modeled 14 · Unscored 134
Median Verified margin
-33.88%
p25 -51.94% · p75 -29.87% · n=9
Hard Reject at ask
100.0%
Strong 0.0% · Pass 0.0%
Share where list exceeds FlipScout MAO at QDA defaults (12% required net / 4-mo carry / 2% slip). Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy at ask on Bid Tape; Bid $ free on sheets.
Rehab bands
T2$44.5/sqft · n=8
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
51.65
Hot 0.0% · n=8
Trajectory
Stable
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
5.7% Verified
Modeled 8.9% · Unscored 85.4%
List → ARV discount
-19.64%
Deep share 0.0% · n=9
Hold bleed pressure
$100–$150/day
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Condo/SFR split withheld — need ≥8 Verified per class.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
40 shown of 157 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $543,745 · mix V9/M31/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 22554. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$275,00010.7% V55VerifiedStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$407,9906.5% V52VerifiedStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$413,4906.3% V52VerifiedStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$409,9006.0% V52VerifiedStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$441,4905.9% V52VerifiedStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$580,0003.2% V50VerifiedStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$699,8992.5% V49VerifiedStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$695,0002.5% V49VerifiedStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$651,000-47.6% V—VerifiedNeg marginStafford, VA · Verified listing
Open brief
$790,9007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$784,0007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$768,9907.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$709,9007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$699,0007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$639,9007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$599,9007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$589,9007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$549,9007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$539,9007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$535,0007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$440,4907.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$424,9907.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$250,0007.5% M53ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$339,872——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$499,999——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$539,990——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,990——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$499,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$575,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$547,500——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$709,900——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$365,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$565,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,900——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$675,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$550,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$539,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$379,900——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
Open brief
$550,000——ModeledStafford, VA · Modeled listing
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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — 100% of Verified actives with ARV screen Hard Reject at ask under FlipScout QDA defaults.
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