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Fredericksburg, VA Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (22407)

FlipScout underwriting tape for Fredericksburg, VA (22407) — 168 actives, 0 Verified / 26 Modeled. Absorption: Elevated supply / slow absorption; sold_6m=158 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.

Signal Narrative

Fredericksburg, VA (22407) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=158 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 168 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 6.4 mo (Elevated supply / slow absorption; velocity ≈ 26.3 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 26 Modeled / 142 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +7.5% (n=26) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.

Underwriting terminal

Neighborhood tape

As of 2026-07-28T06:17:04Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro

Quant Art

Neighborhood math

Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-28T06:17:04Z · daily snapshot

Absorption dial
6.4 MOS mo

MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 168 ÷ (158 ÷ 6) = 168 ÷ 26.3

Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12

Sold liquidity stripe
sold_6m 158 actives 168

monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 158 / 6 = 26.3 closings/mo

Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape

Ask-tape status

Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.

Modeled actives: 26 · Median Modeled ask margin: +7.5% (directional only — not Verified comps).

This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method

Absorption / MOS

Elevated supply / slow absorption

MOS 6.4 mo

sold_6m 158 · actives 168 · High confidence

158 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.

Total Listings

168

Verified 0 · Modeled 26 · Unscored 142

Median Modeled margin

7.5%

Directional Modeled ask tape · n=26 · not Verified comps

Rehab bands

Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.

Verified · condition tier $/sqft

Median Apex

N/A

Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)

Trajectory

Stable

Neighborhood enrichment signal

Honesty mix

0.0% Verified

Modeled 15.5% · Unscored 84.5%

List → ARV discount

—

Deep share — · n=—

Hold bleed pressure

—

Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro

Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes

Active inventory

40 shown of 168 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $507,500 · mix V0/M40/U0

Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 22407. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.

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PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$775,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$734,9907.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$729,9997.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$694,9907.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$674,9007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$650,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$649,9907.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$599,9907.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$575,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$539,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$535,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$525,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$525,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$515,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$500,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$474,9007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$469,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$440,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$415,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$380,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$379,9007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$379,9007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$360,0007.5% M53Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$465,8956.5% M52Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$349,9006.5% M52Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$775,0001.1% M48Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$300,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$725,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$410,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$529,900——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$545,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$330,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$585,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$470,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$620,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$420,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$495,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$450,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$445,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief$499,000——Modeled

Fredericksburg, VA · Modeled listing

Open brief

Verified Invest Deals

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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.

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