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Modesto, CA Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (95350)

FlipScout underwriting tape for Modesto, CA (95350) — 98 actives, 0 Verified / 36 Modeled. Absorption: Market frozen / inventory backpressure; sold_6m=16 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.

Signal Narrative

Modesto, CA (95350) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=16 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 98 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 36.8 mo (Market frozen / inventory backpressure; velocity ≈ 2.7 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 36 Modeled / 62 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +7.5% (n=36) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.

Underwriting terminal

Neighborhood tape

As of 2026-07-31T06:49:47Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro

Quant Art

Neighborhood math

Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-31T06:49:47Z · daily snapshot

Absorption dial
36.8 MOS mo

MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 98 ÷ (16 ÷ 6) = 98 ÷ 2.7

Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12

Sold liquidity stripe
sold_6m 16 actives 98

monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 16 / 6 = 2.7 closings/mo

Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape

Ask-tape status

Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.

Modeled actives: 36 · Median Modeled ask margin: +7.5% (directional only — not Verified comps).

This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method

Absorption / MOS

Market frozen / inventory backpressure

MOS 36.8 mo

sold_6m 16 · actives 98 · High confidence

16 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.

Total Listings

98

Verified 0 · Modeled 36 · Unscored 62

Median Modeled margin

7.5%

Directional Modeled ask tape · n=36 · not Verified comps

Rehab bands

Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.

Verified · condition tier $/sqft

Median Apex

N/A

Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)

Trajectory

Stable

Neighborhood enrichment signal

Honesty mix

0.0% Verified

Modeled 36.7% · Unscored 63.3%

List → ARV discount

—

Deep share — · n=—

Hold bleed pressure

—

Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro

Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes

Active inventory

40 shown of 98 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $459,950 · mix V0/M40/U0

Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 95350. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.

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PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$675,5007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$535,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$500,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$499,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$489,9997.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$480,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$480,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$475,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$464,9007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$455,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$449,9507.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$419,9007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$414,9997.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$410,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$405,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$400,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$399,9997.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$399,9007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$399,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$399,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$390,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$360,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$352,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$339,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$240,0007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$219,9007.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$214,9997.5% M53Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$750,0002.2% M49Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$600,0002.1% M49Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$699,9001.2% M48Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$514,999——Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$449,950——Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$469,000——Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief$389,000——Modeled

Modesto, CA · Modeled listing

Open brief

Verified Invest Deals

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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.

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