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FlipScout Dealpedia

Mesa, AZ Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (85204)

FlipScout underwriting tape for Mesa, AZ (85204) — 89 actives, 0 Verified / 39 Modeled. Absorption: Seller-leaning absorption; sold_6m=183 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.

Signal Narrative

Mesa, AZ (85204) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=183 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 89 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 2.9 mo (Seller-leaning absorption; velocity ≈ 30.5 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 39 Modeled / 50 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +7.5% (n=39) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.

Underwriting terminal

Neighborhood tape

As of 2026-07-28T06:11:54Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro

Quant Art

Neighborhood math

Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-28T06:11:54Z · daily snapshot

Absorption dial
2.9 MOS mo

MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 89 ÷ (183 ÷ 6) = 89 ÷ 30.5

Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12

Sold liquidity stripe
sold_6m 183 actives 89

monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 183 / 6 = 30.5 closings/mo

Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape

Ask-tape status

Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.

Modeled actives: 39 · Median Modeled ask margin: +7.5% (directional only — not Verified comps).

This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method

Absorption / MOS

Seller-leaning absorption

MOS 2.9 mo

sold_6m 183 · actives 89 · High confidence

183 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.

Total Listings

89

Verified 0 · Modeled 39 · Unscored 50

Median Modeled margin

7.5%

Directional Modeled ask tape · n=39 · not Verified comps

Rehab bands

Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.

Verified · condition tier $/sqft

Median Apex

N/A

Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)

Trajectory

Stable

Neighborhood enrichment signal

Honesty mix

0.0% Verified

Modeled 43.8% · Unscored 56.2%

List → ARV discount

—

Deep share — · n=—

Hold bleed pressure

—

Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro

Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes

Active inventory

40 shown of 89 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $417,450 · mix V0/M40/U0

Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 85204. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.

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Open brief

Verified Invest Deals

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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.

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