Absorption / MOS
Elevated supply / slow absorption
MOS 8.7 mo
sold_6m 179 · actives 261 · High confidence
179 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
Phoenix, AZ Hard Reject Underwriting Tape (85032)
FlipScout underwriting tape for Phoenix, AZ (85032) — 261 actives, 5 Verified / 31 Modeled. Absorption: Elevated supply / slow absorption; sold_6m=179 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject rate 100.0% on Verified w/ ARV (QDA defaults — Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy on Bid Tape; Bid $ free).
Signal Narrative
Phoenix, AZ (85032) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=179 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 261 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 8.7 mo (Elevated supply / slow absorption; velocity ≈ 29.8 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 5 Verified / 31 Modeled / 225 Unscored. Hard Reject at ask 100.0% on Verified-with-ARV (QDA defaults — rates only on free hubs). Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-29T06:16:37Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Backed by FlipScout solds + Verified ask tape · 2026-07-29T06:16:37Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 261 ÷ (179 ÷ 6) = 261 ÷ 29.8
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 179 / 6 = 29.8 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
gross_margin% = (ARV − list − rehab) / list · Verified actives @ ask
Universe: Verified ask tape · n=5 · not sold-comp ROI
HardReject% = list_above_mao / Verified_w_ARV = 5 / 5
QDA defaults: 12% required net · 4-mo carry · 2% slip · Bid $ free on tape
Total Listings
261
Verified 5 · Modeled 31 · Unscored 225
Median Verified margin
-37.43%
p25 -49.37% · p75 -27.95% · n=5
Hard Reject at ask
100.0%
Strong 0.0% · Pass 0.0%
Share where list exceeds FlipScout MAO at QDA defaults (12% required net / 4-mo carry / 2% slip). Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy at ask on Bid Tape; Bid $ free on sheets.
Rehab bands
T2$97.92/sqft · n=5
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
56.1
Hot 0.0% · n=5
Trajectory
Stable
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
1.9% Verified
Modeled 11.9% · Unscored 86.2%
List → ARV discount
-4.66%
Deep share 0.0% · n=5
Hold bleed pressure
$50–$100/day
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Condo/SFR split withheld — need ≥8 Verified per class.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
40 shown of 261 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $457,500 · mix V5/M35/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 85032. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$140,00024.7% V65VerifiedHigh marginPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$150,00022.7% V63VerifiedHigh marginPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$239,90012.3% V56VerifiedPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$499,9004.2% V50VerifiedPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$547,9883.1% V50VerifiedPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$745,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$699,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$539,9007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$515,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$495,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$509,9007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$489,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$489,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$489,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$479,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$469,9007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$459,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$425,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$404,9997.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,9007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$355,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$339,9997.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$240,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$225,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$230,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$213,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$178,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$95,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$784,9507.3% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$699,0007.3% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$799,9997.3% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$456,0006.5% M52ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$274,9006.5% M52ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$637,0002.2% M49ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$769,0001.5% M48ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$800,0000.7% M48ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$210,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$180,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$162,900——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$182,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
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PriceMarginApexAddress
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US Goldmine Atlas
Sold-density underwriting terminals nationwide. Browse all Goldmines · Absorption regimes · Fix & flip underwriting · Methodology · Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Markets hub · Arizona Goldmines