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Gilbert, AZ Hard Reject Underwriting Tape (85234)

FlipScout underwriting tape for Gilbert, AZ (85234) — 120 actives, 5 Verified / 28 Modeled. Absorption: Seller-leaning absorption; sold_6m=188 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject rate 100.0% on Verified w/ ARV (QDA defaults — Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy on Bid Tape; Bid $ free).

Signal Narrative

Gilbert, AZ (85234) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=188 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 120 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 3.8 mo (Seller-leaning absorption; velocity ≈ 31.3 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 5 Verified / 28 Modeled / 87 Unscored. Hard Reject at ask 100.0% on Verified-with-ARV (QDA defaults — rates only on free hubs). Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.

Underwriting terminal

Neighborhood tape

As of 2026-07-30T06:06:54Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro

Quant Art

Neighborhood math

Backed by FlipScout solds + Verified ask tape · 2026-07-30T06:06:54Z · daily snapshot

Absorption dial
3.8 MOS mo

MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 120 ÷ (188 ÷ 6) = 120 ÷ 31.3

Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12

Sold liquidity stripe
sold_6m 188 actives 120

monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 188 / 6 = 31.3 closings/mo

Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape

Margin quantile ladder
0% p25 -37.6%med -31.0%p75 -8.2%

gross_margin% = (ARV − list − rehab) / list · Verified actives @ ask

Universe: Verified ask tape · n=5 · not sold-comp ROI

Hard Reject ring
100% at ask

HardReject% = list_above_mao / Verified_w_ARV = 5 / 5

QDA defaults: 12% required net · 4-mo carry · 2% slip · Bid $ free on tape

Absorption / MOS

Seller-leaning absorption

MOS 3.8 mo

sold_6m 188 · actives 120 · High confidence

188 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.

Total Listings

120

Verified 5 · Modeled 28 · Unscored 87

Median Verified margin

-30.96%

p25 -37.64% · p75 -8.24% · n=5

Hard Reject at ask

100.0%

Strong 0.0% · Pass 0.0%

Share where list exceeds FlipScout MAO at QDA defaults (12% required net / 4-mo carry / 2% slip). Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy at ask on Bid Tape; Bid $ free on sheets.

Rehab bands

T2$44.66/sqft · n=5

Verified · condition tier $/sqft

Median Apex

49.5

Hot 0.0% · n=5

Trajectory

Stable

Neighborhood enrichment signal

Honesty mix

4.2% Verified

Modeled 23.3% · Unscored 72.5%

List → ARV discount

-18.04%

Deep share 0.0% · n=5

Hold bleed pressure

$150–$200/day

Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro

Condo/SFR split withheld — need ≥8 Verified per class.

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes

Active inventory

40 shown of 120 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $564,500 · mix V5/M35/U0

Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 85234. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.

Browse all in Houses →
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$510,0004.5% V51Verified

Gilbert, AZ · Verified listing

Open brief$575,0003.5% V50Verified

Gilbert, AZ · Verified listing

Open brief$600,0002.8% V50Verified

Gilbert, AZ · Verified listing

Open brief$599,9002.8% V50Verified

Gilbert, AZ · Verified listing

Open brief$629,0002.3% V49Verified

Gilbert, AZ · Verified listing

Open brief$750,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$750,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$715,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$679,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$657,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$649,9997.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$644,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$599,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$569,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$560,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$549,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$549,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$519,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$499,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$489,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$489,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$469,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$440,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$370,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$359,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$289,9007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$270,0007.5% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$675,0007.4% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$746,0007.3% M53Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$589,9006.5% M52Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$645,0002.2% M49Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$650,0002.1% M49Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$699,0001.6% M49Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$699,000——Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$529,900——Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$544,000——Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$559,500——Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$499,900——Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$465,000——Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$400,000——Modeled

Gilbert, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief

Verified Invest Deals

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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — 100% of Verified actives with ARV screen Hard Reject at ask under FlipScout QDA defaults.

US Goldmine Atlas

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