Absorption / MOS
Balanced absorption
MOS 5.7 mo
sold_6m 192 · actives 183 · High confidence
192 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
Phoenix, AZ Hard Reject Underwriting Tape (85016)
FlipScout underwriting tape for Phoenix, AZ (85016) — 183 actives, 5 Verified / 22 Modeled. Absorption: Balanced absorption; sold_6m=192 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject rate 100.0% on Verified w/ ARV (QDA defaults — Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy on Bid Tape; Bid $ free).
Signal Narrative
Phoenix, AZ (85016) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=192 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 183 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 5.7 mo (Balanced absorption; velocity ≈ 32.0 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 5 Verified / 22 Modeled / 156 Unscored. Hard Reject at ask 100.0% on Verified-with-ARV (QDA defaults — rates only on free hubs). Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-29T06:01:57Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Backed by FlipScout solds + Verified ask tape · 2026-07-29T06:01:57Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 183 ÷ (192 ÷ 6) = 183 ÷ 32.0
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 192 / 6 = 32.0 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
gross_margin% = (ARV − list − rehab) / list · Verified actives @ ask
Universe: Verified ask tape · n=5 · not sold-comp ROI
HardReject% = list_above_mao / Verified_w_ARV = 5 / 5
QDA defaults: 12% required net · 4-mo carry · 2% slip · Bid $ free on tape
Total Listings
183
Verified 5 · Modeled 22 · Unscored 156
Median Verified margin
-34.3%
p25 -36.22% · p75 -24.33% · n=5
Hard Reject at ask
100.0%
Strong 0.0% · Pass 0.0%
Share where list exceeds FlipScout MAO at QDA defaults (12% required net / 4-mo carry / 2% slip). Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy at ask on Bid Tape; Bid $ free on sheets.
Rehab bands
T2$61.85/sqft · n=5
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
49.3
Hot 0.0% · n=5
Trajectory
Stable
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
2.7% Verified
Modeled 12.0% · Unscored 85.2%
List → ARV discount
-19.97%
Deep share 0.0% · n=5
Hold bleed pressure
$150–$200/day
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Condo/SFR split withheld — need ≥8 Verified per class.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
40 shown of 183 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $497,250 · mix V5/M35/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 85016. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$449,0004.5% V51VerifiedPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$519,0003.4% V50VerifiedPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$589,9002.6% V49VerifiedPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$624,9002.1% V49VerifiedPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$650,0001.8% V49VerifiedPhoenix, AZ · Verified listing
Open brief
$715,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$660,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$570,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$525,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$525,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$510,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$510,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$499,9007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$499,5007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$494,9997.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$467,7777.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$385,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$375,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$365,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$305,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$300,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$265,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$249,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$189,0007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$187,5007.5% M53ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$775,0002.1% M49ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$700,0001.8% M49ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$759,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$400,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$479,900——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$184,900——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$549,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$799,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$295,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$557,500——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$549,900——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$359,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$475,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$319,500——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$197,000——ModeledPhoenix, AZ · Modeled listing
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PriceMarginApexAddress
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US Goldmine Atlas
Sold-density underwriting terminals nationwide. Browse all Goldmines · Absorption regimes · Fix & flip underwriting · Methodology · Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Markets hub · Arizona Goldmines