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FlipScout Dealpedia

Phoenix, AZ Flip MOS Underwriting Tape (85018)

FlipScout underwriting tape for Phoenix, AZ (85018) — 60 actives, 0 Verified / 12 Modeled. Absorption: Seller-leaning absorption; sold_6m=171 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject % withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — sold liquidity and MOS remain the primary published signals.

Signal Narrative

Phoenix, AZ (85018) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=171 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 60 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 2.1 mo (Seller-leaning absorption; velocity ≈ 28.5 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 0 Verified / 12 Modeled / 48 Unscored. Hard Reject % and Verified margins are withheld until ≥3 Verified-with-ARV actives — we do not invent ask-tape from Modeled comps. Directional Modeled ask margin median is +7.5% (n=12) — labeled Modeled, not Verified. Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.

Underwriting terminal

Neighborhood tape

As of 2026-07-31T06:32:54Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro

Quant Art

Neighborhood math

Sold liquidity + MOS primary · ask-tape pending Verified depth · 2026-07-31T06:32:54Z · daily snapshot

Absorption dial
2.1 MOS mo

MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 60 ÷ (171 ÷ 6) = 60 ÷ 28.5

Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12

Sold liquidity stripe
sold_6m 171 actives 60

monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 171 / 6 = 28.5 closings/mo

Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape

Ask-tape status

Verified ask sample too thin for Hard Reject % and Verified margin ladder (need ≥3 Verified-with-ARV). Verified actives: 0.

Modeled actives: 12 · Median Modeled ask margin: +7.5% (directional only — not Verified comps).

This Goldmine still underwrites via sold liquidity + MOS. Hard Reject rates publish when Verified-with-ARV depth clears n≥3.

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Underwriting method

Absorption / MOS

Seller-leaning absorption

MOS 2.1 mo

sold_6m 171 · actives 60 · High confidence

171 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.

Total Listings

60

Verified 0 · Modeled 12 · Unscored 48

Median Modeled margin

7.5%

Directional Modeled ask tape · n=12 · not Verified comps

Rehab bands

Verified rehab $/sqft bands need deeper Verified sample.

Verified · condition tier $/sqft

Median Apex

N/A

Insufficient scored Apex sample (0-sentinel excluded)

Trajectory

Stable

Neighborhood enrichment signal

Honesty mix

0.0% Verified

Modeled 20.0% · Unscored 80.0%

List → ARV discount

—

Deep share — · n=—

Hold bleed pressure

—

Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro

Zero Verified actives — Hard Reject / margin tape withheld (Modeled-only).

Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes

Active inventory

40 shown of 60 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $425,000 · mix V0/M40/U0

Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 85018. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.

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PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$525,0007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$217,5007.5% M53Modeled

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Open brief$650,0002.1% M49Modeled

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Open brief$580,0002.0% M49Modeled

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Open brief$689,9991.5% M48Modeled

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Open brief$525,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$718,000——Modeled

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Open brief$775,000——Modeled

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Open brief$435,000——Modeled

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Open brief$785,000——Modeled

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Open brief$550,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$285,000——Modeled

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Open brief$749,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$414,900——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$412,000——Modeled

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Open brief$289,900——Modeled

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Open brief$409,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$715,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$180,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$515,000——Modeled

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Open brief$499,000——Modeled

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Open brief$280,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$385,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$509,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$755,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$675,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$285,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$520,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$500,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$414,999——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$300,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$415,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief$244,000——Modeled

Phoenix, AZ · Modeled listing

Open brief

Verified Invest Deals

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PriceMarginApexAddress
No Verified Invest deals yet0 Verified Invest Deals Currently Available — actives are Modeled or unscored; honesty gate withholds the invest feed.

US Goldmine Atlas

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