Absorption / MOS
Balanced absorption
MOS 4.9 mo
sold_6m 107 · actives 87 · High confidence
107 sold in 6 months — solid zip absorption sample.
Free: Hard Reject rates, MOS, Verified/Modeled mix. Pro $15/mo: street addresses + MAO $. Methodology
FlipScout Dealpedia
Journal Square, NJ Hard Reject Underwriting Tape (07306)
FlipScout underwriting tape for Journal Square, NJ (07306) — 87 actives, 23 Verified / 64 Modeled. Absorption: Balanced absorption; sold_6m=107 (FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS). Hard Reject rate 100.0% on Verified w/ ARV (QDA defaults — Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy on Bid Tape; Bid $ free).
Signal Narrative
Journal Square, NJ (07306) is a FlipScout Goldmine underwriting terminal. Primary signal is sold liquidity: sold_6m=107 (FlipScout DB closings in 6 months — not full MLS), 87 actives on tape. Trusted months of supply = 4.9 mo (Balanced absorption; velocity ≈ 17.8 closings/mo). Honesty mix: 23 Verified / 64 Modeled / 0 Unscored. Hard Reject at ask 100.0% on Verified-with-ARV (QDA defaults — rates only on free hubs). Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate — stress-test asks on the published QDA stack, or read the fix and flip underwriting method.
Underwriting terminal
Neighborhood tape
As of 2026-07-30T06:36:20Z · Daily snapshot · FlipScout DB · MAO solver Pro
Quant Art
Neighborhood math
Backed by FlipScout solds + Verified ask tape · 2026-07-30T06:36:20Z · daily snapshot
MOS = actives ÷ (sold_6m ÷ 6) = 87 ÷ (107 ÷ 6) = 87 ÷ 17.8
Sold window 6 mo · FlipScout DB coverage, not full MLS · zones 4 / 6 / 12
monthly_velocity = sold_6m / 6 = 107 / 6 = 17.8 closings/mo
Real FlipScout DB solds · refreshed with nightly goldmine tape
gross_margin% = (ARV − list − rehab) / list · Verified actives @ ask
Universe: Verified ask tape · n=23 · not sold-comp ROI
HardReject% = list_above_mao / Verified_w_ARV = 23 / 23
QDA defaults: 12% required net · 4-mo carry · 2% slip · Bid $ free on tape
Total Listings
87
Verified 23 · Modeled 64
Median Verified margin
-64.41%
p25 -69.24% · p75 -53.23% · n=23
Hard Reject at ask
100.0%
Strong 0.0% · Pass 0.0%
Share where list exceeds FlipScout MAO at QDA defaults (12% required net / 4-mo carry / 2% slip). Hard Reject ≈ WALK-heavy at ask on Bid Tape; Bid $ free on sheets.
Rehab bands
T3$267.02/sqft · n=17
T4$47.47/sqft · n=5
Verified · condition tier $/sqft
Median Apex
45.8
Hot 0.0% · n=17
Trajectory
Declining
Neighborhood enrichment signal
Honesty mix
26.4% Verified
Modeled 73.6% · Unscored 0.0%
List → ARV discount
-21.47%
Deep share 0.0% · n=23
Hold bleed pressure
$150–$200/day
Banded aggregate · Peak Cash UI Pro
Condo/SFR split withheld — need ≥8 Verified per class.
Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Fix & flip underwriting · Deal finder · Absorption regimes
Active inventory
40 shown of 87 actives · streets locked · price / margin / Apex live · median list $403,750 · mix V18/M22/U0
Each row is an underwriting brief at /property/{id} in ZIP 07306. Margins labeled Modeled are directional — not Verified comps.
PriceMarginApexHonestyListing
$295,00028.7% V55VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
Open brief
$275,00026.6% V51VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$399,99925.4% V46VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$300,00025.3% V47VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$430,00021.9% V50VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$675,00021.1% V44VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$499,00020.6% V42VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$359,00020.5% V49VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$729,00020.4% V50VerifiedHigh marginJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$515,00017.0% V40VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$765,00016.9% V42VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$465,00016.4% V48VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$449,00016.1% V41VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$775,00016.1% V49VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$307,5001.6% V37VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$455,0000.8% V40VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$634,0000.8% V43VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$399,0000.0% V—VerifiedJournal Square, NJ · Verified listing
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$475,0007.8% M43ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$430,0007.7% M43ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$489,0007.6% M43ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$468,0007.6% M43ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$439,0007.6% M43ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$459,9997.5% M43ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$429,0007.5% M43ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$299,0004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$395,0004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$373,0004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$329,0004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$329,0004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$325,0004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$324,5004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$287,5004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$279,0004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$410,0004.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$359,0003.9% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$375,0003.5% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$407,5003.2% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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$399,0003.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
Open brief
$399,0003.0% M40ModeledJournal Square, NJ · Modeled listing
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PriceMarginApexAddress
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Neighboring Corridors
Analyzing adjacent investment corridors? Track live margins in Jersey City Heights, NJ (07307) and ZIP 07304 (07304).
US Goldmine Atlas
Sold-density underwriting terminals nationwide. Browse all Goldmines · Absorption regimes · Fix & flip underwriting · Methodology · Same QDA stack as this Hard Reject rate · Markets hub · New Jersey Goldmines